One of the great privileges of what we do at GoldCore is the chance to meet with clients, not just over the phone or on a screen, but in person. This past week, we had that opportunity at a big event in Ireland.
It was a wonderful event. We were genuinely touched by how many clients made the effort to come and see us. Thank you, your continued trust means everything. We also spoke to many new faces, some of whom are just beginning to explore the idea of owning precious metals.
But what stood out most were the conversations which were open, honest, and revealing.
The Truth About Gold & Basel III – You’ve Been Misled
We heard from more than a few people that they “still trust the banks” or feel that “gold is too expensive now.” And while we always welcome differing views, those sentiments struck a chord — because they are data points, not objections.
If the crowd was euphoric, desperate to buy, and convinced that gold was a sure thing, then I’d worry that we were at a market top. But we’re not seeing that. Instead, we’re seeing skepticism. People are still asking questions. Some are hesitant. Many haven’t bought yet.
That tells me this bull market still has room to run.
Interestingly, that theme echoed in a piece published this week by Robert Armstrong in the Financial Times. Armstrong speculated that perhaps gold has already hit its long-term high citing the price’s recent drift sideways after touching $3,250, and suggesting that we may have reached “peak tariff anxiety” and “peak Trump anxiety.” His evidence? A record number of fund managers – nearly 50%, according to Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey – now believe gold is overvalued.
Armstrong points out, quite rightly, that in 2011 and 2020, similar consensus among fund managers correctly called price pullbacks. But he also notes a strange pattern: in most asset classes, when everyone agrees something is overvalued, they’re usually wrong. With gold, for some reason, they’ve tended to be right.
This is where I think the analysis needs a second look.
Because while the crowd may have called short-term tops in the past, the fundamentals driving today’s gold market are very different. This isn’t a short-term spike driven by fear or speculation. It’s a long-term revaluation driven by debt, deglobalisation, and de-dollarisation.
The main buyers of gold today aren’t retail investors in the West, they’re institutional buyers in Asia and, crucially, central banks. These are not hot-money players. They are allocating for the long term.
ETF flows from Western investors, which Armstrong’s colleague Hamad Hussain rightly notes have not driven this rally, are only now beginning to return. That suggests we haven’t yet seen the full force of Western demand. And when those financial buyers do fully re-engage, we may well see the next leg up.
So yes, price sentiment has cooled. But if anything, that’s a sign of a healthy consolidation and not a bursting bubble.
Basel III, the LBMA, and What It Didn’t Say
Elsewhere this week, the LBMA quietly issued a clarification: gold will not be classified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III.
There had been some confusion on this point (perhaps even some hopeful assumptions) so the LBMA’s statement was meant to set the record straight.
It’s worth noting that we’ve covered this topic in depth on our GoldCoreTV YouTube channel recently, where we looked at the difference between gold’s Tier 1 asset status and a Level 1 HQLA. The distinction matters and so does the quiet nature of what is really going on.
Why wasn’t gold elevated to HQLA? Possibly because, from a regulatory perspective, acknowledging gold’s liquidity and credit-worthiness would be an admission that it stands on par, or even above, government bonds and cash.
That’s a difficult concession for any system built on fiat money. But it doesn’t change the reality: gold remains one of the most liquid, dependable, and credit-risk-free assets in the world. The fact that central banks keep accumulating it tells you everything you need to know.
Looking Ahead
So where are we now?
We’re in a market that’s still climbing the wall of worry. Where gold is making new all-time highs, but mainstream consensus remains unconvinced. Where institutional buyers in Asia accumulate physical metal, while Western fund managers hesitate. Where regulators still can’t quite admit that gold does what their rules say liquid assets should do.
That, to me, is a signal, not of a top, but of a market still maturing.
And from the conversations this week to the pages of the Financial Times, what we’re seeing isn’t exuberance. It’s doubt. And history suggests that doubt is the soil in which gold tends to grow best.
Until next time.
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