At the time of writing, gold continues to trade in a narrow range around $4,050/oz as investors await this week’s key US economic data, particularly Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Deutsche Bank expects US employment to increase by 65,000 jobs in July, a modest improvement on June’s 57,000 gain, while forecasting the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, though a rise to 4.3% remains a risk if labour force participation improves.
The bank also expects wage growth to remain steady at 0.3% month-on-month, with average hours worked unchanged.
Despite the recent consolidation, Deutsche Bank remains constructive on gold’s outlook. Strategist Michael Hsueh believes the recent pullback has likely marked gold’s bottom for 2026, arguing the metal is still in the “explosive price behaviour” phase that began in August 2024.
While long-term commodity comparisons suggest a lower valuation, Deutsche Bank’s valuation models point to a fair value of approximately $4,700/oz, underpinning its year-end target of $4,600/oz. The bank also estimates gold’s downside is limited, with a projected floor around $3,700/oz, suggesting the recent weakness may represent a healthy correction rather than the end of the broader bull market.
However, why does the argument for gold begin long before the gold price?
I recently sat down with renowned economist and author Dr. Stephen Leeb to explore this question and find out why he believes we’re witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in the global monetary order.
Dr Stephen Leeb begins with a concern we all share: it has become increasingly difficult to establish what is true. From there, he traces the consequences through the declining popularity of Western leaders, the disappearance of statesmanship, the loss of long-term thinking and the monetary break that followed the end of the gold standard in 1971.
By the time the conversation turns directly to gold, Dr Leeb has built a much larger argument. He sees gold as part of the answer to a financial system that has lost discipline and a world that is already constructing alternatives.
He and I discussed the creation and possible decline of the petrodollar, China’s expanding gold infrastructure, whether the United States may be closer to reintroducing gold into its monetary thinking, and why gold could provide protection during deflation as well as inflation.
The conversation also gives us a fascinating look into Dr Leeb’s thoughts on artificial intelligence. Dr Leeb asks what AI cannot reproduce about human beings, including humour, creativity, love and independent thought, and why those qualities have become increasingly important in a world shaped by algorithms and competing narratives.
Some of his conclusions are provocative. You may agree with him, disagree with him, or find yourself reconsidering assumptions along the way. Let us know.
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