14
Jan
2016

“Buy Gold” As Equities “Rolling Over” Warns UBS

UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016’, it is time to “buy gold”.

UBS_Gold_Charts_2016

In their just released research note entitled ‘The 7-Year Cycle in Equities Is Rolling Over … Buy Gold!’, analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Müller believe the bear market that has dominated the price of gold since 2011 is nearing a bottom, with the “basis for the next multi-year bull market” now taking hold:

“Gold we expect to move into a major 8-year cycle bottom in 2016, as the basis for a new multi-year bull market.”

“Gold has been trading in a cyclical bear market since 2011. In 2016, we expect gold and gold mines moving into an 8-year cycle bottom as the basis for the next multi-year bull market. Initially, we see gold profiting as a safe haven and as of 2017, gold could profit from the US dollar moving in a major top and starting a bear market.” 

“In contrast to the underlying secular trend in commodities (which has turned bearish) we see gold (which is in our view a currency and not a commodity) still trading in a secular bull market.

Pattern wise we continue to see the 2011/2016 cyclical bear market in the same context as the 1975/1976 bear cycle in gold. Keep in mind, in the mid-70s gold lost 43% of its value from its January 1975 top before another gold bull market started into the January 1980 bubble peak. It is amazing to see that with a loss of 45% from its August 2011 top into the early December 2015 low, the decline in gold has more or less exactly the same proportion as in the mid-70s.

Furthermore, there are still a lot of market commentators who say that the August 2011 top in gold was the top of a bubble. According to the average gains we have seen in historical financial bubbles, the gold bull run from 2001 into 2011 (760%) was far away from any bubble territory.

In the first gold bubble, gold gained 2400%. In the 1903 to 1929 Dow bubble, the Dow Jones Industrial gained 1200%. The 1979-1989 Nikkei bubble came in at around 2000% and the 1980 – 2000 Nasdaq bubble topped out a +3900%.

So if gold moves into a bubble, we would need to see a gold price of minimum $3,300, and in this case we would still talk about a low bubble phenomena such as the 1903 – 1929 Dow Jones bubble!!”

The research and charts are well worth a read and can be accessed here


Precious Metal Prices
14 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,090.75, EUR 998.03 and GBP 759.10 per ounce
13 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,081.80, EUR 1,000.00 and GBP 749.04 per ounce
12 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,094.95, EUR 1,008.76 and GBP 756.92 per ounce
11 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,104.70, EUR 1,014.08 and GBP 758.18 per ounce
8 Jan LBMA Gold Prices: USD 1,097.45, EUR 1,009.86 and GBP 750.67 per ounce


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Mark O'Byrne
Executive Director

  • John

    “UBS has warned that the seven-year cycle in equities is rolling over, we could see a sharp 30% correction in stocks and that as per the headline of their ‘Technical Outlook 2016′, it is time to “buy gold”.

    Now the Banks are recommending you buy gold now that their self created 7 year cycle of prosperity with 0 percent interest rates for their Favorite Too Big Too Jail Corporations, Wall Street & the Banksters is coming to an end – Now the Seven Bad Years.