Roubini's Bearish Forecast Is Bullish For Gold

Published in Market Update  Precious Metals Update  on 27 January 2012

By Mark O’Byrne


Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,722.00, GBP 1,095.98, and EUR 1,310.30 per ounce.

Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,713.00, GBP 1,091.10, and EUR 1,300.59 per ounce.

In Asia this morning gold fell from its seven week high as traders took profits ahead of US Gross Domestic Product data to be released later today (1.30GMT).  Gold investors were happy with the Fed's decision to keep interest rates low, but now the focus will again be on the eurozone and hopes for a solution to Greece's debt debacle.

Gold will still be supported by central banks who add to their reserves, plus strong Asian interest from investors and consumers.

Gold rallied to $1,729.76 on Thursday, its strongest since December, but was still well below the record of $1,920 reached in September 2011.  Silver is on track for nearly a 20% rise this January, its biggest gain since last April.

Economist, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, outlined the following predictions at a conference in NYC on Jan. 19th.   He said, “Rising commodity prices, uncertainty in the Middle East, the spreading European debt crisis, increased frequency of “extreme weather events” and U.S. fiscal issues are “persistent” problems that will continue to spur market volatility and sway asset prices in the global economy.

This is great news for gold. Goldman Sachs noted in a report on Jan. 13th that futures will advance to $1,940 an ounce in 12 months.  Morgan Stanley forecasts the yellow metal will climb to a record of $2,175 by 2013, said analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane in their research report.

Futures for February delivery rose 2.1% to $1,700.10 today on the Comex in New York. This is the  highest closing price seen since early December.  

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