Gold Core

Inflation and commodity investment

Published by Marc Westlake under Commentary | Wealth Management |

“Too much money chasing too few goods” – a basic, monetarist definition of inflation.

In the long run, inflation is generally believed to be a monetary phenomenon, i.e. it is attributed to growth in the supply of money. While in the short and medium term it is influenced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and interest rates. The question of whether the short-term effects last long enough to be important is the central topic of debate between the Monetarist and Keynesian schools.

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Gold Investments Market Update

Published by Mark O’Byrne under Market Updates |

Gold
Gold was up $8.70 to $946.10 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday and silver surged 58 cents to $18.66 per ounce. Gold particularly continued to surge in Asian and early European trading.
Gold also surged in British pounds and euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $958.75 and gold fixed at new record highs in most major currencies - at£481.62 and €636.32.

The latest mooted IMF possible gold sale story was rightly treated with disdain by the markets and gold has rallied on the old reliables of surging oil and a sharply falling dollar.

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Property or Equity? Which is the best investment?

Published by Marc Westlake under Commentary | Wealth Management |

Mark Twain said; “Buy land, they’re not making any more of it”

One question I am repeatedly asked is this: “which is a better investment, Property or the Stockmarket”.

As with so many things in life, the answer is “it depends”.
I have to agree with Mark Twain’s observation. Land is a finite resource, and we live on an Island. You don’t need a PHD in stating the obvious to realise that an investment in land or property should, over time, appreciate. Property isn’t a bad investment.

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Gold Investments Market Update

Published by Mark O’Byrne under Market Updates |

Gold
Gold was down $1 to $944.70 per ounce in trading in New York on Friday but silver was up 10 cents to $18.00 per ounce. Gold rose close to new nominal record highs in early European trading ($951.90) and silver rose to new 27 year highs ($18.15). Last week gold was up by more than 4.5% (more than $40) as fears regarding burgeoning inflation and indeed stagflation began to permeate financial markets. Silver was even stronger and was up by 5% on the week.

Gold remains near new record nominal highs in British pounds and euro. The London AM Fix at 1030 GMT this morning was at $947.50. Gold fixed near new record highs at £482.26 and €639.77.

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Gold Investments Market Update

Published by Mark O’Byrne under Market Updates |

Gold
Gold rose $11.10 to $945.70 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 18 cents to $17.90 per ounce. Gold and silver have traded in a narrow range in Asian and early trading in Europe. Gold reached new record nominal highs at $952.75 and silver has surged over $18 per ounce to new 27 year highs at $18.06.

Gold also surged to new record highs in British pounds and in euro. The London PM Fix at 1500 GMT yesterday afternoon was at $945. Gold fixed at new record highs at £482.76 and €641.20.

Increasing fears of stagflation drove gold to new record highs (non inflation adjusted highs) in major currencies. Both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have lowered their growth estimates and the Fed has also increased its inflation forecast. The Philly Fed Index fell to its lowest level since 2001 and unemployment news was poor with the 4 week moving average of jobless claims rising 10,750 to 360,500. Meanwhile most commodities continued to rise with zinc and copper surging, leading the base metals higher. Equity markets in Asia and Europe are down and fears of a U.S. recession are sure to be to the fore.

Despite the significant and growing inflation, markets have moved to fully price in a 0.50% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March. Central bankers are throwing in the towel in the fight against inflation in order to try and prevent a systemic crisis and a subsequent deep recession. The risk is that they let the inflation genie fully out of the bottle. Thereby wreaking havoc in the form of an inflationary spiral as was experienced in the 1970s (or worse in 1920s Germany which led to order-of-magnitude increases in prices and interest rates, redenomination of the currency and a wholesale consumer flight from cash to hard assets).

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Gold Investments Market Update

Published by Mark O’Byrne under Market Updates |

Gold

Gold rose $7.80 to $934.60 per ounce in trading in New York yesterday and silver was up 22 cents to $17.72 per ounce. Gold and silver continued to rise in Asia and early trading in Europe and gold reached new record highs just below $950 at $949.60 per ounce and silver has surged over $18 per ounce.

Gold also surged to new record highs in British pounds and in euro. The London PM Fix at 1500 GMT yesterday afternoon was at $920. Gold fixed at new record highs at £474.37 and €627.90.

Gold has surged on increasing inflation concerns with yesterday's stronger than expected and sharply higher US CPI report. With the commodities complex continuing to surge and oil staying above $100 a barrel, inflation will continue to increase significantly in the U.S. and internationally. The Chinese reported inflation at an 11 year high at 7.1%.

Central banks risk creating a very dangerous inflationary spiral should they continue trying to alleviate macroeconomic and systemic risk by lowering interest rates in what is a very inflationary environment.

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Gold Investments Market Update

Published by Mark O’Byrne under Market Updates |

Gold
Markets were closed in New York yesterday and the action centred on London where gold sold off initially and tested support at $900 prior to rallying strongly and this strength has continued in Asian trading with gold rising above $910 per ounce. Silver traded similarly, testing support just below $17 and then bouncing; in Asian trading silver has risen above $17.20 per ounce.

Commodities Surge and Burgeoning Inflation
With commodity markets surging internationally, gold is very well supported and looks to be consolidating prior to challenging the recent highs and targetting $1,000 in the coming weeks. Oil is back above $96, wheat is up 90% in the last 6 weeks and the entire complex of base metals and soft commodities are showing strong gains. The rise in prices of commodities will take a few weeks to feed into the supply chain, affect the already embattled consumer and be reflected in inflation statistics.

This is obviously very inflationary especially with the Federal Reserve expected to continue cutting interest rates and negative real interest rates in an increasingly stagflationary environment. Money supply growth in the U.S. continues to surge and the reconstituted U.S. money supply (M3) figures show a very inflationary 18% growth.

Supply of Gold Decreasing Internationally
Meanwhile supply continues to decline and the situation and outlook in South Africa continues to deteriorate and is seriously affecting the supply of gold and particularly platinum. South Africa and indeed most of the major gold producing countries are experiencing a decline in gold production. Indeed China is the only major gold producer in the world to have increased production last year.

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